The idea
A breakout above the high attracts buyers who expect continuation. If there aren't enough buyers at the new highs, the price starts to slide, and those who bought the breakout are trapped. Failed Breakout waits for the moment the pullback has started but hasn't gone far: the high is behind, the overheating isn't gone, and sellers have become more aggressive.
How the radar decides
- 5 required rules: a 4h rise of 10% to 40%, distance from the 15m high between −4% and −0.5%, RSI 15m ≥ 68, OI over 30m up 3–20%, CVD over 5m ≤ 0%.
- Confirmations, at least 2 of 5: RSI 4h ≥ 65, distance from VWAP 1h ≥ 3%, share of overbought coins across the market ≥ 20%, long liquidations of 0.05% of OI or more over 5 minutes, a 5m volume spike ≥ 3x.
- The score is the share of matched confirmations; the pause per coin is 1 hour.
The interesting confirmation here is whole-market overheating (Market pulse): when a fifth of all futures are overbought, failed breakouts happen more often. And long liquidations show that the pullback is already wiping out those who bought at the top.
Activity
As of 15.10.2026 in the dashboard: 7 events in 7 days, 15 in 30 days. It needs fewer confirmations, so it fires more often than the others. Most of the channel's trades for 10–17.10.2026 came from Failed Breakout.
All rules: Failed Breakout
Exactly as in the dashboard. An event is saved when all 5 required rules match and at least 2 confirmations out of 5. Each rule links to its indicator page.
Required (AND) — all needed5
ANDRSI 15m ≥ 68RSI→ ANDOI Δ 30m 3% to 20%Open Interest→ ANDPrice from high 15m −4% to −0.5%Price→ ANDPrice change in 4h 10% to 40%Price→ ANDCVD Δ 5m ≤ 0%CVD→Confirmations (OR) — at least 2 of 55
ORRSI 4h ≥ 65RSI→ ORVWAP deviation 1h ≥ 3%VWAP deviation→ ORPct RSI overbought (market) ≥ 20%Market pulse→ ORLong liquidations / OI 5m ≥ 0.05%Liquidations→ ORVolume spike 5m ≥ 3xVolume spike→Demo radar rules as of 15–20.10.2026. In the dashboard they can be exported and imported into your own trap.
Trades on signals from Failed Breakout
Alerts from this radar in the @Trap_Radar_Pro channel whose result the author posted as a reply. These are not all of the radar's signals, only trades with a published result.
| Coin | Alert, Moscow time | Price move | Lev. | ROI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFXUSDT | 11.10 10:05 | −6.43% | 20x | +128.76% | post |
| BATUSDT | 15.10 22:06 | −8.24% | 10x | +82.42% | post |
| CFXUSDT | 10.10 21:08 | −3.78% | 20x | +75.64% | post |
| DEEPUSDT | 14.10 10:14 | −5.83% | 10x | +58.33% | post |
| OPUSDT | 10.10 05:06 | −3.05% | 15x | +45.72% | post |
| C98USDT | 10.10 07:33 | −5.50% | 5x | +27.50% | post |
| GMTUSDT | 10.10 00:04 | −3.05% | 5x | +15.27% | post |
ROI is on margin with leverage, as on the Bybit screenshot; the price move is without leverage. October 2026. Past results do not guarantee future results.
FAQ
Why is the pullback capped at −4%?
Why is CVD required here?
How is Failed Breakout different from Black Swan?
This page explains how Trap Radar rules work and is not investment advice. Leveraged futures trading carries high risk, up to the total loss of capital.